Dear Cubicle Coach:

I'm a new boss with a hiring quandary: The internal candidate is competent but ordinary, while the other choice is a wild card — could be great, could be a nightmare. Do I play it safe and go with the one I've already worked with?

Dear New Boss:

Commit to memory CC's Corollary, which states that when choosing between the known mediocrity and the unknown candidate, one should always pick the unknown. You have a 66.7 percent chance of a positive result. Yes, the unknown could flop, but she could also a) do as well as the known, or b) actually be a star. Make this rule number one and you will become recognized and maybe even celebrated for your genius hires. And, CC promises, no more math for a while.

What Do You Think?