Kate Middleton Will Probably Have a "Low-Key" 40th Birthday in Contrast to Meghan Markle, Expert Says

It's all about family for the duchess.

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Kate Middleton turns 40 on Jan. 9, just months after her sister-in-law celebrated this landmark birthday herself. But for royal expert Duncan Larcombe, the Duchess of Cambridge's celebrations will look nothing like the Duchess of Sussex'.

Where Meghan Markle took the opportunity to launch a new mentoring-based charity initiative and involve A-listers such as Melissa McCarthy, Adele and Stella McCartney, Larcombe imagines that Middleton will not make a big deal out of the occasion.

"Kate and William are not the sort to go away to celebrate on their own and leave the kids at home," Larcombe tells OK! "I think the same will apply to Kate’s birthday as it does to Christmas—it will be low-key and it will be focused entirely on the family."

But just because this particular birthday won't be a huge party for Middleton doesn't mean she hasn't rung it in in jet-setty style in the past. "Long before they got married and long before they had children, it wasn’t unknown for William to whisk Kate away for her birthday, usually to the ski slopes but once or twice to the Caribbean," Larcombe explains.

"The first picture of the two of them kissing was taken when Kate was celebrating her birthday quietly with William at Klosters ski resort in Switzerland.

"But that was then and it’s just not Kate’s style to want to throw a lavish party for friends and family. I can’t see her going on any VIP trips to posh West End restaurants either."

So we know what the duchess' birthday won't look like, but what will it actually look like? "I think we can expect Kate to be deliberately modest, with no fuss and the emphasis firmly on her family," the expert speculates.

Larcombe also doesn't think that Middleton will announce any new initiatives, unlike Markle did on her 40th. "I’d be very surprised if she does announce anything," he says. "She’s unlikely to because, firstly, it’s just not her way and secondly because of the obvious comparisons with Meghan and this awful continuation of one-upmanship that the palace is so keen to avoid.

"Kate is already an established member of the Royal Family and has no need to make any announcements. In any case, she’s already made several statements on childhood years and mental health since we came out of lockdown."

As for who Middleton will surround herself with on her birthday, Larcombe also has a theory. "She will probably want to see her parents and siblings especially as she didn’t see them last year," he says. "But I think Kate will view her birthday—even if it is her 40th—as irrelevant to everyone except herself and her family.

"The days when William partied the night away at Windsor Castle are long gone. Instead, the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are growing older gracefully." Sounds good to me.

Iris Goldsztajn is a London-based journalist, editor and author. She is the morning editor at Marie Claire, and her work has appeared in the likes of InStyle, Cosmopolitan, Bustle and Shape. Iris writes about everything from celebrity news and relationship advice to the pitfalls of diet culture and the joys of exercise. She has many opinions on Harry Styles, and can typically be found eating her body weight in cheap chocolate.