Awards season 2017 is coming to a close and that means the Oscars are nigh. You may have heard that this is La La Land's year (the modern-day musical does boast a record-tying 14 nominations), but don't expect the Emma Stone/Ryan Gosling love story to sweep every category. Here are our predictions for who will take home gold statues this year, and who actually deserves to.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will win: La La Land
Should win: Moonlight
In conclusion: La La Land is as close to a shoe-in as you get with the Oscars, but there are many who believe that Moonlight—which tells an important story—should win. While La La Land provided viewers with some much-desired escapism and a win in the Best Picture category isn't totally undeserved, the category is still very debatable.
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Will win: Damien Chazelle
Should win: Split between Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins
In conclusion: Chazelle created a beautiful, appealing heightened reality in La La Land, and his vision will likely be rewarded with an Oscar. But Moonlight director Barry Jenkins summoned intensity and depth from his actors, and is equally-deserving of the award.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Will win: Casey Affleck
Should win: Denzel Washington
In conclusion: Affleck is still considered the frontrunner in this category, although he lost some steam recently (thanks in large part to persistent sexual harassment allegations). Meanwhile, Washington scored a big coup with his win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which may signal the tide turning in his favor for the Oscars. His performance in Fences is nuanced and moving, but the win would be his third—an Oscars rarity.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will win: Emma Stone
Should win: Isabelle Huppert
In conclusion: Huppert gave a fantastic performance as a sexual assault survivor, but foreign language performances rarely win in the acting categories, so she's faced an uphill battle from the start. The Academy will likely give the award to Stone for her turn as a young ingenue because, let's face it, Hollywood loves movies about Hollywood.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will win: Mahershala Ali
Should win: Mahershala Ali
In conclusion: It would be a huge upset and a pretty much unanimously agreed upon tragedy if Mahershala Ali didn't win the Supporting Actor trophy this year.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Will win: Viola Davis
Should win: Viola Davis
In conclusion: The only opposition Viola Davis has is from people who think she was submitted in the wrong category and should be winning an Oscar for Best Actress in a Leading Role. This is Davis' third nomination, and she should finally get the recognition she deserves.
Best Original Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filipou, The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
Will win: It's a toss-up between La La Land and Manchester by the Sea.
Should win: Manchester by the Sea
In conclusion: Damien Chazelle might pick up the award for orchestrating the world of La La Land from start to finish, but early predictions leaned in favor of Manchester by the Sea scribe (and screenwriting veteran) Kenneth Lonergan.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Luke Davies, Lion
Eric Heisserer, Arrival
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
August Wilson, Fences
Will Win: Moonlight
Should win: Moonlight
In conclusion: Moonlight will likely be snubbed in other categories that it deserves to win, but the Academy will view Best Adapted Screenplay as a chance to award Barry Jenkins for the incredible film.
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Will win: Zootopia
Should win: Zootopia
In conclusion: Disney and Pixar tend to dominate this category, and this year Disney's critical and box office smash Zootopia will take home the prize.
Best Original Song
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land
"Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls
"City of Stars," La La Land
"The Empty Chair," Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go," Moana
Will win: "City of Stars," La La Land
Should win: "City of Stars," La La Land
In conclusion: Even musical powerhouses like Justin Timberlake and Lin-Manuel Miranda won't be able to derail La La Land's success train. The musical has two songs nominated in this category, which could lead to some cannibalizing of votes, but "City of Stars" will probably still emerge victorious.
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